Assessing dengue forecasting methods: a comparative study of statistical models and machine learning techniques in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Table 10 Average width of the uncertainty intervals of models including covariates

Week	Statistical models				Machine learning models					Ensemble
Week	SARIMAX	SARIMAX_Lag	VAR	Var_Lag	SVM	RF	XGBoost	LSTM	Prophet	LSTM_SARIMAX
1	392.05	412.44	402.72	354.21	560.02	1678.31	1668.07	306.98	795.44	303.93
2	570.76	531.70	585.18	533.60	882.41	1724.57	1723.47	457.93	918.22	448.20
3	747.85	679.51	736.93	710.49	1018.40	1761.29	1754.48	617.84	1045.29	639.15
4	964.53	889.74	945.25	828.14	1114.13	1812.38	1792.54	778.38	1172.60	802.21
8	1517.52	1456.77	1418.95	1421.72	1311.92	1974.08	1937.82	1368.89	1358.01	1430.66
12	1983.28	1826.20	1759.12	1708.77	1594.97	2088.01	2051.51	1761.05	1368.09	1845.90

ISSN: 1349-4147