Table 1 Accuracy of the statistical models without covariates at various forecast horizons
Week | AR(1) | MA(1) | ARIMA | ETS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MAE | MAPE (%) | RMSE | MAE | MAPE (%) | RMSE | MAE | MAPE (%) | RMSE | MAE | MAPE (%) | RMSE | |
1 | 83.28 | 19.93 | 127.03 | 82.72 | 19.49 | 124.61 | 78.26 | 18.25 | 124.33 | 78.66 | 19.17 | 126.71 |
2 | 114.99 | 26.59 | 176.96 | 114.62 | 26.03 | 175.04 | 114.61 | 25.05 | 179.33 | 118.36 | 26.52 | 185.13 |
3 | 139.51 | 33.02 | 211.01 | 144.65 | 32.90 | 216.32 | 143.84 | 31.39 | 221.81 | 146.24 | 36.07 | 223.62 |
4 | 178.87 | 39.48 | 269.14 | 182.26 | 39.85 | 274.49 | 175.38 | 36.07 | 277.48 | 186.66 | 44.12 | 292.18 |
8 | 314.44 | 62.00 | 457.62 | 323.80 | 62.68 | 465.38 | 308.92 | 56.32 | 461.73 | 392.21 | 89.16 | 578.60 |
12 | 432.34 | 81.05 | 608.53 | 436.55 | 81.86 | 612.83 | 396.91 | 64.95 | 583.04 | 649.15 | 150.31 | 917.47 |